Saturday 18 May 2013

The Toronto Transit Dilemma: A Case Study of Government versus Private Operations


            One of the most significant features of most government operations, as opposed to private business ventures, is that payment and service are separated. When dealing with a private business, you pay the asked price, and then you typically receive the promised service. It is different with most government operations. Here, payment for the ‘service’ is collected coercively through the process of taxation of the government’s subjects, and then the ‘service’ is seemingly delivered either for free or at a subsidized rate.
            
           This is the feature of government operations that make many egalitarians advocates of more government ‘services’. They seek to put some diluted form of the communist slogan: ‘From each according to his abilities, to each according to his needs’ into action by collecting payment through progressive taxation hitting the rich harder, and then providing ‘service’ indiscriminately to members of the ‘general public’.  We may approve or disapprove of this egalitarian aim, but in either case, there are certain consequences of separating payment from service through government operations that must be recognized regardless.
            
           In order to explore these consequences, I will use the current debates over the proposed expansion of the city of Toronto’s government-run transit system, under the aegis of the Toronto Transit Commission (TTC), as a case study. The situation is this: Toronto, compared to most other cities of its size, has a pretty minimalist subway system, with regular instances of overcrowding and many areas of the city totally inaccessible by subway. Most Torontonians and Toronto municipal politicians agree that Toronto’s transit system should probably be expanded in some way; the question is, in what way and how to pay for it? Some want more subways; some Light-Rail Transit. Some want more service in the suburbs and other underserved areas; others want more service in the downtown core to relieve the overcrowding. Some think taxes should be raised to pay for it; others think that spending cuts in other areas should be enough to pay for it. The province of Ontario’s government wants the city of Toronto’s government to bear most of the brunt of the financing; the city of Toronto’s government wants the province of Ontario’s government to bear most of the brunt of the financing. In short, we have a classic political squabble, with little decisive action on the issue foreseen in the near future.
                   
           Why, some might ask, all the political squabbling? Can’t we just consult ‘transit experts’ on the best place to build the new lines and the best vehicles to use, and consult ‘economic experts’ on what the best way of financing it would be? The problem is that there is no objective ‘best’ of any of these things for some abstract ‘general public’, separated from the geographical positions and subjective value judgements of individual Torontonians. Building a proper subway to the suburb of Scarborough would be great for people and businesses situated there, but would be little consolation to central Toronto residents forced to pay more taxes to support this expansion. Similarly, building more lines to relieve the congestion of central Toronto would be great for people living and working there, but would annoy most suburb dwellers forced to pay more taxes in order to ‘pamper’ their downtown counterparts. Building Light Rail Systems would be cheaper, but would be a less high quality transit experience than subways and would result in more road congestion for personal vehicle drivers. Neither is objectively better.
            
           How about financing, should taxes be raised or not? The answer will depend on both your general political ideology and on the proportion of the general tax burden that you are forced to bear. Yes, if the government collected more revenue they could probably provide more service (at the expense of private sector services that had been paid for with money that had not been taxed away previously), but there must be a point when enough is enough. When the government coercively monopolizes important sectors such as transit, education, and health care, the question is a difficult one to answer.
            
           There is, however, a solution to these seemingly insurmountable problems, a solution that no one in the mainstream media ever talks about. The solution is the privatization of Toronto’s transit system, with the reconnection of the currently severed link between payment and service that it would entail. Users of the TTC do currently pay a fare, but the fare is not enough to allow the TTC to break even with all of its monopolistic inefficiencies, let alone have money to expand, and the government subsidizes it, thus it is a subsidized rate, representing a partially severed link between payment and service. Privatization would mean the following: if an entrepreneur, probably backed by investors, predicted that he would be able to recoup the costs of building a new transit line, along with netting a decent profit, through charging the free-market rate for fares, the line would get built. Rather than the section of the city with the most political clout getting the transit line, the line would go to the section of the city whose residents or visitors are predicted to actually be willing to pay enough to make the line profitable. The people willing to pay for it would receive the service that they paid for, that is the way of the free-market.
            
           Moreover, privatization would introduce competition into Toronto’s transit industry. Rather than the monopolistic, subsidized TTC calling all the shots, anyone with brains, money, and experience could enter the transit industry and compete. Even if multiple subway lines along the exact same street wouldn’t at the moment be feasible, surface vehicles could compete with subways from different companies on the same street, and if the demand warranted it, subway lines built by competing companies could be built close enough together and going along similar enough routes to make them real competitors. The result would be both price competition and quality/service competition, something that would be a welcome change from the surly TTC employees, constant delays, and ever-rising (even though subsidized heavily) fares.  
            
           There are bound to be a few common objections to this privatization proposal, so we will take the time to anticipate and answer them here. The first would be a worry about a private monopoly springing up. The critic would argue that due to the nature of the transit industry, real competition is impossible, and thus privatization would just mean a substitution of a government monopoly for a private monopoly, hardly a worthwhile goal. In response, yes it is true that currently, it is probably technically infeasible for two subway lines to compete on the very same street. It is also true that it is technically impossible for a Wal-Mart and a Target to be in the exact same location, and it is commercially unlikely that these two stores would exist in the same mall or plaza due to excessive catering to a limited demand. Does that mean that these companies are monopolists? No it doesn’t, businesses don’t have to have the exact same features, in this case location, in order to vigorously compete with one another.

As we saw above, private subway line owners would be faced with the potential competition of different owners’ surface vehicles on the same street, as well as possibly from competitors’ subway lines nearby. For instance, a private owner of the Yonge Street subway line may be the ‘monopolist of subways on Yonge Street’, but if the demand warranted it, a competitor could build a subway line nearby, say on Jarvis/Mount Pleasant, to effectively compete with the Yonge Street owner. If the demand to justify another subway line wasn’t there, it quickly would be if the Yonge Street subway owner started running his line inefficiently or unreasonably (the main outcome people worry about from private monopolies), which would create space for competitors to enter on nearby streets.

In addition, besides having to compete with other subway lines that might pop up and surface vehicles, the privatization of the transit industry would make private subway line operators more responsive to existing forms of transit competition than the TTC currently is. The TTC is faced with the competition of personal vehicles and taxi cabs. However, the TTC is kept afloat by government subsidies. If they lose some business to personal vehicles and taxi cabs, the TTC is not going to go bust; most likely it’ll just receive more government subsidies. These subsidies would not be available to private subway operators, which would mean that they would have to take the competition from personal vehicles and taxi cabs far more seriously than the TTC currently does. Thus, worries about an inefficient private transit monopoly are unfounded; privatization would feature far more competition in the transit industry than the current system of a government-subsidized monopoly.

Another objection would probably have to do with positive externalities (see my post on externalities here: http://thinkingabouthumansociety.blogspot.ca/2013/03/economic-externalities-raison-detre-for.html). Critics would point out that the building of a subway line servicing a neighbourhood would result in external, unpaid-for benefits to the residents and business owners of that neighbourhood, in the form of more accessibility to the neighbourhood and a corresponding rise in property values. The problem with this is that because subway entrepreneurs are not remunerated for providing these external benefits, they will not factor it in to their calculations, and hence will be less likely to build a subway line, even if the benefits outweigh the costs if the external benefits are taken into account.

In response, given the possible external benefits, there are two options: either the subway line is built or it is not built. If it is built on the strength of the anticipated consumer demand for the transit services alone, than the external benefits just shower on the residents of the affected neighbourhood and no one is made worse off. Who can complain about that? If it is not built based on the strength of the anticipated consumer demand for the transit services alone, then there are two possibilities: either it would have been built had there been a way of ‘internalizing the positive externalities’, or it would not have been built even if there was a way of ‘internalizing the positive externalities’, because the benefits simply did not outweigh the costs. The problem is that we have no way of knowing which possibility applies to each particular case. Positive externalities, precisely because they are externalities, are immeasurable. Flawed surveys asking, without actually demanding the payment, how much people ‘would have’ paid to have a subway line in their neighbourhood is not a scientific way of ‘measuring externalities’ for the simple reason that people tend to be more generous in words than they are when it comes time to actually open their wallets. Because externalities are immeasurable, it is unscientific for an observer to say that this subway line ‘should have been built if it had not been for the selfish profit motive’: they simply have no way of knowing if the externalities were significant enough to justify the cost.

Besides this problem with the positive externalities argument, another problem is that it assumes that people are too inert and apathetic to actually organize and try to ensure that the beneficial, positive externality-showering subway line comes their way. In reality, people can and often do organize to internalize some of the potential positive externalities in order to ensure that the project is undertaken. For instance, a private subway entrepreneur could be faced with the choice of whether to build a subway line on Eglinton Avenue or on St Clair Avenue, or to not build a new subway line at all and invest in another, more profitable, project. Let us assume that on the strength of anticipated consumer demand for subway transit alone on either of these streets, building either line is anticipated to be not as profitable as other uses for the same amount of investment money. There are potentially un-internalized positive externalities for the property values of people on and around these streets though, what can be done? Well, an Association for Encouraging the Eglinton Subway, for instance, could be organized by residents and business owners near Eglinton. It could be organized on the foundation of a contingent contract, where subscribers promise to give a certain amount of money to the cause, provided that, say, 50% of business owners and residents in the designated area do the same. The money could then be offered to the subway entrepreneur as an incentive to build his line there, thus effectively internalizing some of the positive externalities. The same could be done by St Clair residents, and presumably whichever neighbourhood managed to raise more money, assuming it was enough, would get the cherished subway line. This process would be even easier if neighbourhoods, as many probably would be in a more libertarian society, were organized on a town house/condominium-type basis, in which case residents’ associations or ‘neighbourhood entrepreneurs’ would already be in place to gather money from residents to improve the infrastructure, including subway encouragement, of the neighbourhood.

Thus, as usual, the positive externalities argument against privatization does not hold up because it mistakenly believes that externalities are accurately measurable, mistakenly assumes that people are inert in the face of potential positive externalities rather than voluntarily organizing to reap them, and overestimates the ability of coercive governments to deal with the problem satisfactorily.

Finally, as the night follows the day, the egalitarians are bound to oppose transit privatization with their signature argument. They would argue that transit should be something that people should have more or less equal access to, and that being rich should not determine how well your transit needs are met. It is for this reason that egalitarians favor the government method of separating payment from service, and oppose privatization with its indissoluble link between payment and service. For my evaluation of egalitarianism in general, see section 2 of the following post: http://thinkingabouthumansociety.blogspot.ca/2013/04/dissecting-leftist-statism.html

Here, suffice it to say that while there is nothing objectively wrong with valuing a more egalitarian societal distribution of wealth as a good in its own right, there is something objectively wrong with ignoring the effects of implementing egalitarian policies. Most importantly, it must be recognized that egalitarian policies have a weakening effect on incentives to make money by producing for the world’s consumers. In the case of transit, the egalitarians are really saying (though most would never put it this way) that better ability to serve the consumers, as measured by someone’s disposable wealth/income in a free-market order, should not result in access to a better subway line than poorer people. Transit privatization, according to the egalitarian argument, is ‘unfair’ because the fares necessary to actually make the business profitable might result in pricing poor people out of the subway market. Now, we do not actually know whether fares under a private subway system would be higher than under the auspices of a subsidized, but also cost heavy and inefficiently run, government monopolist. Most likely they would be at first, but would gradually get lower (forgetting about monetary inflation for now) as the private lines got a chance to innovate and improve their processes, spurred on by competition and the profit motive. Even if they were perpetually higher though, all that means is that people actually have to pay for the services that they are using and that people who have had more success serving the consumers in other fields have more purchasing power to purchase more and better transit services with. This is how the incentive structure of the market works and even an intense love of egalitarianism cannot conjure away the effects of interfering with it.

Thus, my proposed solution to the Toronto transit political dilemma is one that is rarely ever talked about: to take transit out of the hands of politics entirely, and return it to the market where it can thrive. The monopoly, positive externalities, and egalitarian objections to this proposal do not really hold up, and should certainly not be held up as grounds for dismissing the proposal entirely without a proper discussion of its merits.           
                    
         
           
               

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