Sunday 11 August 2013

The Role of the Historian

            What is the role of the historian, how does he fit within the study of society? One view is that the historian’s role is purely that of an antiquarian whose task it is to pursue historical truth for its own sake. He must make sure that we have a correct picture of historical events and the cultures and institutions of historical civilizations because knowledge is good for its own sake and the truth must be searched for in all areas, regardless of its ‘practicality’.
            
            Another view gives the work of the historian far more importance. In this view, the historian is likened to the experimental physicist, the one whose work provides the empirical data for the theoretical social sciences. The historian ascertains facts about past civilizations, and through a study of these facts, sociological, political, and economic theories can be formulated.
            
           The truth is though, that the true role of the historian is both a combination of these two and neither of these two. As per the antiquarian view, it is true that, first and foremost, the historian’s task is to ensure that we have an accurate picture of the past. But it is not true that this is just knowledge for its own sake, as the views we have of what happened in the past will shape what we think should be done in the present, ie. our social views and theories. An inaccurate understanding of history can lead to the seeming plausibility of faulty social theories.

For example, a key intellectual foundation of modern Keynesian economics is a particular account of the period of American economic history from 1929 to 1945. According to this account (which traditionally begins with the crash of 1929, ignoring the events leading up to it), when the stock market crash came and the depression ensued, a ‘liquidationist’, laissez-faire free-marketeer named Herbert Hoover was unfortunately the president of the United States at the time. In accordance with his laissez-faire philosophy, Hoover took no political action in the face of the depression, dooming the American economy to stagnation. Happily, this was reversed when Franklin Roosevelt was elected president and instituted the New Deal, a policy which gradually turned the depression around through monetary inflation and public works spending. Finally, World War II dealt the finishing blow to the depression, ending stagnation and unemployment and ensuring a prosperous, Keynesian-dominated American economic future in the post-war.
            
           Unfortunately for the Keynesian position, almost every component of this account is a historical myth. Firstly, American economic history did not start in 1929. Financial crises had plagued the US economy throughout the 19th century but they had never turned into a severe, drawn-out depression as in 1929, and the presidents at the time intervened relatively little in these crises. In addition, a look at the money supply as it grew from 1926-1929 reveals a large-scale money printing operation, suggesting some kind of causal relation between that and the economic bubble of the late 20s that turned into a bust in 1929. Secondly, Herbert Hoover, when one compares him to the presidents of the past, was not a laissez-faire ‘liquidationist’ but one of the most economically interventionist presidents in American history up to that point. Before 1929, he was a big proponent of organizing businesses into compulsory, government-linked cartels to restrain ‘excessive competition’. In the wake of the crash, he intervened with large-scale public works spending (for instance, the Hoover Dam) and called on businesses not to reduce the wages of their employees (wage reductions which, according to free-market economists, are a vital step in a recovery from a depression). When Roosevelt came in, he expanded and formalized Hoover’s interventionist measures, and added some destructive ones of his own, perhaps partly explaining why the Great Depression lasted for over ten years while previous downturns generally lasted only a year at most. Finally, World War II certainly did not end the Great Depression in any real sense of the term. Yes, according to economic statistics that are questionable even in peacetime (GDP, unemployment rate, etc…), there was a recovery in wartime. But having a ‘recovered’ GDP consisting of government expenditures on weapons and destruction, alongside rationing of most consumers goods, and having ‘full employment’ through mass conscription and death, is hardly what most people have in mind when they talk about economic recovery. 

           Sounder accounts of the end of the depression date it to just after the war, because the political climate was moving in the direction of restoring some lost economic freedoms, because the war, due to rationing, had jacked up Americans’ pool of savings, and because with most of the rest of the world devastated by war, America was in a temporarily dominant position industrially (and having the US dollar as the official reserve currency of the rest of the world didn’t hurt either).
            
           A large part of which account is adopted depends on historical facts. Was Hoover a laissez-faire president or was he not? Was it true that historically, no recovery had been possible from previous economic downturns without significant economic interventions from the government or was it not? Did World War II, by itself, restore economic prosperity or did it not? The historian, as a pure fact finder, has an important role to play in controversies such as these.
           
           However, the historian’s role extends beyond pure fact finding. Sometimes (and even in the aforementioned example this is partially true), two sides of a historical controversy agree on the facts, but differ on the interpretation. A good example of this is the history of industrialism in the 19th century and its effect on the wages of industrial workers. Every respectable historian agrees that real wages were going up over the course of the 19th century, but, according to their views of economic theory, they disagree over the causal relation involved in this event. A socialist-leaning or labour union-sympathizing historian will tend to argue that it was the rise of the power of labour unions (a fact that is not denied by anyone) that led to the increase in the wages of industrial workers. Without this, according to the Marxist view of how wage rates are determined, the employers would have left the employees with the same real wage rates (enough so that they survive and procreate) and would have pocketed the surplus created by the growth of industry for themselves. By contrast, historians sympathetic to the free-market will tend to argue that it was through the significant accumulation of capital and through technological improvements over this period (another fact that is not denied by anyone) that the real wages of industrial workers rose. This is because, according to free-market economic theory, wage rates are determined just like any other factor of production, and when one class of factors of production (capital goods) become more abundant, labour, a complementary factor of production to capital goods, without which capital goods are useless, becomes relatively scarcer and hence more valuable, thus securing higher real wage rates for those willing to expend labour in this more productive structure of production.
            
           Thus, in this case, we see that the historian’s role is not just to establish facts, but to interpret facts with the help of correct economic, social, and political, theories. This shows how the second view of the historian, as the experimental physicist of the social sciences, is also incorrect, for in cases such as these (and there are many), one cannot construct social theories on the basis of historical facts, but must adhere to social theories before one can even interpret those facts.

Because of this, the responsible historian must never cloister himself off from the theoretical disciplines of the social sciences, it is critical that he adheres to the most correct economic, social, and political theories available if he wishes to give an accurate historical account. In addition, as we saw in the first example though, the historian’s work can also have an effect on the formulation of social theories, even though historical data, by itself, cannot provide a sufficient basis for justifying one social theory and discarding another. The mind of the social theorist who adheres to the Keynesian historical myth of the Great Depression period will be pushed in the direction of false social theories by his inaccurate understanding of history. Similarly, the historian who adheres to false social theories will be led towards false accounts of history due to his faulty understanding of the causal relations involved. Thus, both historians and social theorists (and there is no reason one cannot be both), must work together in order to help understand the complexities of human societies.

Even though it is the correct epistemological base for the purely theoretical social sciences, people are uncomfortable with pure deductive, logical reasoning as a foundation for social theories. For this reason, they seek to have a theory that is ‘backed up’ by the historical record. This can take the form either of theorists giving a tortuous, implausible account of history that fits their faulty theories, or of theorists crafting their social theorists based on their received (whatever that may be) understanding of history. Thus, though technically, sound basic social theories could be deduced by logic alone without reference to history, in reality, correct history and correct social theories support one another, as do faulty history and faulty social theories. The historian who ascertains the correct historical facts and interprets them using a correct social theory, established by rigorous logical reasoning, is doing a great service to the social sciences, as he makes correct social theories more plausible and doesn’t let false history lead thinkers towards false theories.


Finally, the question arises, why study the social sciences at all, isn’t this just a truth for its own sake indulgence as well? It is not, because the social theories that we hold, and how we understand the history of past societies, will directly influence what we think should be done in the present. As citizens in a democracy, it falls to all of us to ensure that we are not supporting harmful political programs because of our ignorance of correct social theory and history. It is the role of the historian and the social theorist to work together to develop correct social theories and accounts of history. Once developed though, and this is the final and most important role of the historian and social theorist, this understanding must be disseminated widely to the broader public in order for it to effect the real world. If this knowledge is kept within a narrow group of academics, then and only then does history and social theory become an ivory tower intellectual indulgence.      

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